Archive for the ‘Seeing Things As They Are’ Category
Is the new one better than the old one?
Successful commercialization of products and services is fueled by one fundamental – making the new one better than the old one. If the new one is better the customer experience is better, the marketing is better, the sales are better and the profits are better.
It’s not enough to know in your heart that the new one is better, there’s got to be objective evidence that demonstrates the improvement. The only way to do that is with testing. There are a number of types testing mechanisms, but whether it’s surveys, interviews or in-the-lab experiments, test results must be quantifiable and repeatable.
The best way I know to determine if the new one is better than the old one is to test both populations with the same test protocol done on the same test setup and measure the results (in a quantified way) using the same measurement system. Sounds easy, but it’s not. The biggest mistake is the confusion between the “same” test conditions and “almost the same” test conditions. If the test protocol is slightly different there’s no way to tell if the difference between new and old is due to goodness of the new design or the badness of the test setup. This type of uncertainty won’t cut it.
You can never be 100% sure that new one is better than the old one, but that’s were statistics come in handy. Without getting deep into the statistics, here’s how it goes. For both population’s test results the mean and standard deviation (spread) are calculated, and taking into consideration the sample size of the test results, the statistical test will tell you if they’re different and confidence of it’s discernment.
The statistical calculations (Student’s t-test) aren’t all that important, what’s important is to understand the implications of the calculations. When there’s a small difference between new and old, the sample size must be large for the statistics to recognize a difference. When the difference between populations is huge, a sample size of one will do nicely. When the spread of the data within a population is large, the statistics need a large sample size or it can’t tell new from old. But when the data is tight, they can see more clearly and need fewer samples to see a difference.
If marketing claims are based on large sample sizes, the difference between new and old is small. (No one uses large sample sizes unless they have to because they’re expensive.) But if in a design review for the new product the sample size is three and the statistical confidence is 95%, new is far better than old. If the average of new is much larger than the average of old and the sample size is large yet the confidence is low, the statistics know the there’s a lot of variability within the populations. (A visual check should show the distributions to more wide than tall.)
The measurement systems used in the experiments can give a good indication of the difference between new and old. If the measurement system is expensive and complicated, likely the difference between new and old is small. Like with large sample sizes, the only time to use an expensive measurement system is when it is needed. And when the difference between new and old is small, the expensive measurement system’s ability accurately and repeatably measure small differences (micrometers vs. meters).
If you need large sample sizes, expensive measurement systems and complicated statistical analyses, the new one isn’t all that different from the old one. And when that’s the case, your new profits will be much like your old ones. But if your naked eye can see the difference with a back-to-back comparison using a sample size of one, you’re on to something.
Image credit – amanda tipton
What Innovation Feels Like
There are countless books and articles on innovation. You can read how others have done it, what worked and what didn’t, how best to organize the company and how to define it. But I have not read much about how it feels to do innovation.
Before anything meaningful can happen, there must be discontent or anger. And for that there needs to be a realization that doing things like last time is a bad idea. This realization is the natural outcome of looking deeply at how things really are and testing the assumptions of the status quo. And the best way to set all this in motion is to do things that generate immense boredom.
Boredom can be created in two ways. 1. Doing the same boring work in the same boring way. 2. Stopping all activity for 30 minutes a day and swimming in the sea of your boring thoughts. Both work well, but the second one works faster.
Next, with your discontent in hand, it’s time birth the right question. Some think this the time for answers, but with innovation the real work is to figure out the question. The discomfort of trying to discover the right question is seven times more uncomfortable the discomfort of figuring out the right answer. And once you have the right question, the organization rejects you as a heretic. If the organization doesn’t dismiss you in a visceral way, you know you don’t have the right question. You will feel afraid, but repeat the cycle until your question threatens the very thing that has made the company successful. When people treat you like you threaten them, you know you’re on to something.
To answer your question, you need help from the organization, but the organization withholds them from you. If you are ignored, blocked or discredited, you’re on the right path. Break the rules, disregard best practices, and partner with an old friend who trusts you. Together, rally against the organization and do the work to answer your question. If you feel isolated, keep going. You will feel afraid and you will second guess yourself. Proceed to the next step.
Make a prototype that shows the organization that your question has an answer. Don’t ask, just build. Show the prototype to three people and prepare for rejection. You and your prototype will be misunderstood and devalued. Not to worry, as this is a good sign. Revise the prototype and repeat.
Do anything you can to show the prototype to a customer. Video the customer as they interact with the prototype. You will feel afraid because you are breaking the rules. This is how you should feel. Keep going.
Set up a meeting with a leader who can allocate resources. If you have to, set up the meeting under false pretenses (the organization is still in rejection mode) and show the video. Because of the uncertainty of their response, you will feel afraid. Show the video anyway.
The organization is comfortable working in the domains of certainty and control, but innovation is done in the domain of uncertainty. By definition, the organization will reject your novel work. If you are rejected, keep going. Revise your heretical question, build a prototype to answer it, show a customer, show someone who can allocate resources, and be afraid all along the way. And repeat, as needed.
With innovation, mostly you feel afraid.
Image credit – Tybo
The Yin and Yang of Work
Do good work and people will notice. Do work to get noticed and people will notice that too.
Try to do good work and you’ll get ahead. Try to get ahead and you won’t.
If the work feels good while you’re doing it, it’s good work. If it doesn’t, it’s not.
If you watch the clock while you work, that says nothing about the clock.
When you surf the web at work, you’re not working. When you learn from blog posts, podcasts and TED talks, you are.
Using social media at work is good for business, except when it isn’t.
When you feel you don’t have the authority, you don’t. If you think you need authority, you shouldn’t.
When people seek your guidance you have something far more powerful than authority, you have trust.
Don’t pine for authority, earn the right to influence.
Influence is to authority as trust is to control.
Personal relationships are more powerful than org charts. Work the relationships, not the org chart.
There’s no reason to change right up until there’s a good reason. It may be too late, but at least you’ll have a reason.
Holding on to what you have comes at the expense of creating the future.
As a leader don’t take credit, take responsibility.
And when in doubt, try something.
Image credit — Peter Clark
You probably don’t have an organizational capability gap.
The organizational capability of a company defines its ability to get things done. If you can’t pull it off, you have an organizational capability problem, or so the traditional thinking goes.
If you don’t have enough people to do the work, and the work is not new, that’s not a capability gap, that’s an organizational capacity gap. Capacity gaps are filled in straightforward ways. 1.) You can hire more people like the ones who do the work today and train them with the people you already have. Or for machines – buy more of the old machines you know and love. 2.) Map the work processes and design out the waste. Find the piles of paper or long queues and the bottleneck will be right in front. Figure out how to get more work through bottleneck. Professional tip – ignore everything but the bottleneck because fixing a non-bottleneck will only make you tired and sweaty and won’t increase throughput. 3.) Move people and machines from the work to create a larger shortfall. If no one complains, it wasn’t a problem and don’t fix it. If the complaints skyrocket, use the noise to justify the first or second option. And don’t let your ego get in the way – bigger teams aren’t better, they’re just bigger.
If your company systematically piles too work on everyone’s plate, you don’t have an organizational capability problem, you have a leadership problem.
If you’re asked to put together a future state organization and define its new capabilities, you don’t have an organizational capability gap. A capability gap exists only when there’s a business objective that must be satisfied, and a paper exercise to create a future state organization is not a business objective. Before starting the work, ask for the company’s growth objectives and an explanation of the new work your team will have to do to achieve those objectives. And ask how much money has been budgeted (and approved) for the future state organization and when you can make the first hire. This will reduce the urgency of the exercise, and may stop it altogether. And everyone will know there’s no “organizational capability gap.”
If you’re asked to put together a project plan (with timeline and budget) to create a new technology and present the plan to the CEO next week, you have an organizational capability gap. If there’s a shortfall in the company’s growth numbers and the VP of business development calls you at home and tells you to put together a plan to create a new market in a new country and present it to her tomorrow, you have an organizational capability gap. If the VP of sales takes you to a fancy restaurant and asks you to make a napkin sketch of your plan to sell the new product through a new channel, you have an organizational capability gap.
Real organizational capability gaps are rare. Unless there’s a change, there can be no organizational capability gap. There can be no gap without a new business deliverable, new technology, new partnership, new product, new market, or new channel. And without a timeline and an approved budget, I don’t know what you have, but you don’t have organizational capability gap.
Image credit – Jehane
You don’t find the next new thing, it finds you.
Doing something new is harder than it looks.
The first step to doing new is to realize you have no interest in doing what was done last time. Profitable or not, the same old recipe just doesn’t do it for you. You don’t have to know why you don’t want to replay the tape, you just have to know you don’t want to. So don’t.
But it’s not enough to know what you don’t want to do, you’ve got to know what you do want to do. To figure that out, you’ve got to stop doing. The focused, churning mind isn’t your friend here because it thinks of ideas that are too closely related to what it knows. This is the job for the idle mind. The idle mind has nothing to focus on, so it doesn’t. It runs in the background imagining the impossible and considering the absurd. And since it runs without your knowledge, you can’t get in its way. So do nothing. Turn off your electronics and sit. Feel uncomfortable. Give your mind no place to go so it can go where it wants. Read a biography about an important historical figure. Travel to their century so while you’re visiting your subconscious can figure out what to do.
You don’t figure out what’s next. What’s next finds you while you’re not looking for it. And the best way to do that is to do nothing.
Doing nothing is a lot of work. And it’s difficult to do. My advice – start with 15 minutes of nothing. Anything more is too much. Take your mobile phone out of your pocket, put it on your desk (or throw it at the floor and stomp on it) and walk to a quiet place and sit. Close your eyes, sit and watch. You’ll see your monkey mind search for the next big thing and not find it. Then you’ll see it think about something that scares you and you’ll get scared. Then you’ll see it think about an old argument and you’ll jump back into it and relive it. Then, after a while, you’ll realize you’re not watching, you’re reliving. Then you’ll see your mind try again in vain to find the next thing to do. And after 15 minutes of this nonsense, you’re done with your first session of nothing.
Repeat this process over 5 days and a good idea will find you. You may be sleeping, showering, eating or reading, but no worries, it will find you. Something will click and you’ll put together two things that aren’t meant to be together but, once together, make a lot of sense – like a strange Ben and Jerry’s flavor you taste for the first time and eat the whole pint.
The new idea isn’t the new thing itself, it’s the first step toward finding the next thing to do. But, you’ve started wandering down a crazy new path that’s no longer crazy, and you’re on your way.
Resume your daily 15 minute sessions of nothing and, in between, mix in some small experiments to test, refine or invalidate your next new thing. Repeat, as needed.
And don’t stop until what you’re looking for finds you.
Image credit – Figure Focus.
Selling New Products to New Customers in New Markets
There’s a special type of confusion that has blocked many good ideas from seeing the light of day. The confusion happens early in the life of a new technology when it is up and running in the lab but not yet incorporated in a product. Since the new technology provides a new flavor of customer goodness, it has the chance to create incremental sales for the company. But, since there are no products in the market that provide the novel goodness, by definition there can be no sales from these products because they don’t yet exist. And here’s the confusion. Organizations equate “no sales” with “no market”.
There’s a lot of risk with launching new products with new value propositions to new customers. You invest resources to create the new technologies and products, create the sales tools, train the sales teams, and roll it out well. And with all this hard work and investment, there’s a chance no one will buy it. Launching a product that improves on an existing product with an existing market is far less risky – customers know what to expect and the company knows they’ll buy it. The status quo when stable if all the players launch similar products, right up until it isn’t. When an upstart enters the market with a product that offers new customer goodness (value proposition) the same-old-same-old market-customer dynamic is changed forever.
A market-busting product is usually launched by an outsider – either a big player moves into a new space or a startup launches its first product. Both the new-to-market big boy and the startup have a far different risk profile than the market leader, not because their costs to develop and launch a new product are different, but because they have not market share. For them, they have no market share to protect any new sales are incremental. But for the established players, most of their resources are allocated to protecting their existing business and any resources diverted toward a new-to-market product is viewed as a loss of protective power and a risk to their market share and profitability. And on top of that, the incumbent sees sales of the new product as a threat to sales of the existing products. There’s a good chance that their some of their existing customers will prefer the new goodness and buy the new-to-market product instead of the tried-and-true product. In that way, sales growth of their own new product is seen as an attack no their own market share.
Business leaders are smart. Theoretically, they know when a new product is proposed, because it hasn’t launched yet, there can be no sales. Yet, practically, because their prime directive to protect market share is so all-encompassing and important, their vision is colored by it and they confound “no sales” with “no market”. To move forward, it’s helpful to talk about their growth objectives and time horizon.
With a short time horizon, the best use of resources is to build on what works – to launch a product that builds on the last one. But when the discussion is moved further out in time, with a longer time horizon it’s a high risk decision to hold on tightly to what you have as the market changes around you. Eventually, all recipes run out of gas like Henry Ford’s Model T. And the best leading indicator of running low on fuel is when the same old recipe cannot deliver on medium-term growth objectives. Short term growth is still there, but further out they are not. Market forces are squeezing the juice out of your past success.
Ultimately, out of desperation, the used-to-be market leader will launch a new-to-market product. But it’s not a good idea to do this work only when it’s the only option left. Before they’re launched, new products that offer new value to customers will, by definition, have no sales. Try to hold back the fear-based declaration that there is no market. Instead, do the forward-looking marketing work to see if there is a market. Assume there is a market and build some low cost learning prototypes and put them in front of customers. These prototypes don’t yet have to be functional; they just have to communicate the idea behind the new value proposition.
Before there is a market, there is an idea that a market could exist. And before that could-be market is served, there must be prototype-based verification that the market does in fact exist. Define the new value proposition, build inexpensive prototypes and put them in front of customers. Listen to their feedback, modify the prototypes and repeat.
Instead of arguing whether the market exists, spend all your energy proving that it does.
Image credit — lensletter
To make a difference, believe in yourself.
When the mainstream products become tired, there’s incentive to replace it, but while sales are good there’s no compelling reason to obsolete your best work. Things that matter start from things that no longer matter.
The gestation period for a novel idea to transition to viable technology then to a winning product and the processes to bring it market is longer than anyone wants to admit. If you haven’t done it before it takes twice as long as you think and three times longer than you want. If you stomp on the accelerator once there’s consensus you should, you waited too long.
There’s a simple way to tell it’s time to accelerate. When the status quo sets the cruise control to “coast”, it’s time. When new there’s no time to work on new concepts, that’s coasting. When ROI analyses are required for most everything, that’s coasting. When forward-looking work is cut and cost reduction work is accelerated, that’s a sure sign of coasting.
As soon as you recognize coasting, it’s time to circle the wagons and create an acceleration plan. It’s not across-the-board acceleration, nor is it founded on people working harder or taking on more projects. The plan starts with a business objective and a commitment to add resources to speed things up. If the plan isn’t tied tightly to an important business objective it will miss the mark, and if incremental resources are not applied to the work, it won’t accelerate.
Here’s a rule – if projects and resources don’t change, you haven’t changed anything.
When you can feel the low pressure system in your body and can smell the storm brewing over the horizon, you have an obligation to do something about it. But moving resources and starting projects at the expense of stopping others is emotionally charged work, and the successful organization will reject these changes at every turn. And everyone will think there’s no need to change, but they’ll be wrong.
It’s will be tough going, but your instincts are good and intuition is on-the-mark – there is a storm brewing over the horizon. Push through the discomfort, push through the fear, push through the self-doubt.
It’s time to believe in yourself. It’s the only thing powerful enough to make a difference.
Image credit – Chris Kim
Diversity Through Podcasts
Podcasts are short bursts of learning curated to please your ear. And with training budgets slashed, podcasts can be a wonderful and cost effective (free) way to learn.
The only way to battle uncertainty is to increase diversity. Bringing together people with diverse experiences lets us see things from multiple perspectives so we can better navigate uncertain terrain. But increasing your personal diversity helps too. Giving yourself new knowledge from diverse fields helps you broaden your perspective and makes you better at handling the uncertainty that comes with life.
The hard part about podcasts is deciding which ones to listen to. In my work to increase my diversity, I’ve listened to a lot of podcasts. Some were interesting and inspiring and others weren’t.
Below are some of my favorite podcast episodes. There’s a short description of each one, along with what I learned from them. Click the link to take you to the episode and you can listen to each one. No need to download. Just find the play button and click it.
Enjoy.
9-Volt Nirvana (Radiolab) — I learned about how the brain works and how it can be supercharged (with a 9-volt battery) to learn faster. I listened to this one on a long car ride with my daughter. She doesn’t like podcasts, but she was captivated by this one.
The Living Room (Love and Radio) — A story about how things can look differently than they are, especially when looking from the outside. I learned how our assumptions and the stories we tell ourselves shape how we see the world. This one is emotionally gripping.
Guided by Voices (Benjamin Walker’s Theory of Everything) — How Kant and Kepler both tried (and failed) to record the universal harmonies Pythagoras once heard. They struggled to make peace with the irrationality and disharmony of nature. I learned disharmony is natural and to embrace it. There’s a segment in the middle that’s not about Kant and Kepler that you may want to skip. To skip that segment, listen from the beginning and at 9:30 skip to 23:07 and listen to the end.
Eckhart Tolle’s The Power of Now (On Being) — I love Eckhart’s voice and his chuckle. I learned how I am not my emotions; I am the space for my emotions. And I learned about the Pain Body. That, on its own, was worth it. Krista Tippett is a brilliant interviewer.
Belt Buckle (Mystery Show) — A story about a long-lost belt buckle and its journey home. I learned how we attach meaning to objects, and that can be a good thing.
The Wrath of the Khans 1 (Dan Carlin’s Hardcore History) — This is a riveting story of Genghis Khan. Dan Carlin is wonderful – he sits you right in the middle of history. (Listen for two minutes and you’ll feel it.) I learned the power of personal will and how history changes over time. To skip Dan’s wonderful introduction and get a feel for the Great Khan, start at 19:00 and listen for 10 minutes. If you like what you hear, keep listening. This podcast is long almost 2 hours and it’s the first of a series of five on the Great Khan. This is one of my most favorite favorites.
image credit — mpclemens
Is it novel?
Agree or not, companies think they have to grow to survive. (I don’t believe it.) For companies of all sizes and shapes, growth is the single most important forcing function. Is has tidal wave power, and whether you’re a surfer, sailor or power-boater, it’s important to respect it. More than that, when push comes to shove, it’s the only wave in town.
Companies’ recipe for growth is simple: make more, sell more. And some keep it simpler: sell more.
The best growth: sell new products or provide new services to new customers; next best: sell new to the same customers; next next best: sell more of the same to the same customers. The last flavor is the easiest, right up until it isn’t. And once it isn’t, companies must come up with new things to sell. That works for a while, until it doesn’t. Then, and only then, after exhausting all other possibilities, companies must create real newness and try to sell it to strangers.
The model works well as long as everyone in the industry follows it. But when an up-start outsider enters the market back-to-front, the wheels fall off. When they develop useful newness before you and sell it to your customers (new customers for them), that’s not good. And that’s why it’s so important to start with different — right now.
To help your company do more work that’s different, start with an inventory of your novelty. Novel work is work that creates difference, and that difference can be defined only in comparison with the state-of-the-art (what is, or the baseline system). Start with a functional analysis of your state-of-the-art. Create a block diagram of your business model, your most successful product and the service that defines your brand. Take a look at your technology and new product development projects and flag the ones that will create things that aren’t on your three functional analyses. (Improvement projects, because they improve what is, cannot be flagged as novel.)
Put all your novelty on one page and decide if you like it. (No way around it, how you respond to the level and type of novelty in your quiver is a judgment call.) If you like what you see, keep going. If you don’t, stop some improvement projects and start some projects that create useful novelty. The stopping will not come easy. Existing projects have momentum and people have personal attachment to them. The only thing powerful enough to stop them is the all-powerful growth objective. If company leaders learn the existing projects won’t meet the growth objective, the tidal wave will sweep away some lesser projects to make room for new ones.
There will be great internal pressure to add projects without stopping some, but that won’t work. Everyone is fully booked and can’t deliver on additional projects even if you tell them to. If you’re not willing to stop projects, you’re better off staying the course and waiting until you finish one before you start a project to increase your novelty score.
Novelty is good because there’s more upside potential, and improvement is good because there’s more certainty. One is not better than the other. You need both.
In the end, you’re going to have to judge if you’re happy with what you’ve got. That’s a difficult task that no one can make easier for you. But it is possible to use your judgment better. If you can clearly call out what’s novel and what’s not, you’re on your way.
Image credit – s3aphotography (image cropped)
You’re worth it.
Why are you holding back? Why aren’t you giving your best? Why are you blocking yourself?
An open, honest disagreement can be a positive learning experience for both. If your intensions are good, everything works out well. I’m not sure why, but when your pockets are full of good intensions, the universe is kind to you.
But the universe’s kindness doesn’t manifest in the outcome you want. It’s a better teacher than that. The universe has been around a long time and has seen it all. It understands context. And it has a good memory. It uses both as input for its outputs. And to keep things lively, it often exercises its dry sense of humor. But more than anything, the universe is a good judge of character. And that’s how it decides how things should go.
A situation has no inherent emotional component. Any emotion attached to the situation is attached by you. If you feel fear, it’s not the situation. You’re afraid. Things aren’t scary, you make them scary. Situations don’t hold you back, you do.
Fear is a protection mechanism. But from what? If you hold back because you’re afraid what others will think, you are protecting yourself from judgement. At the surface it looks like you are afraid of being judged by others, but that’s not it. You are afraid of being judged by you. But if your intensions are good, the universe will give you what you deserve. There’s nothing to fear. Yet, you block yourself.
You’re not afraid others will judge you as second class. You want to avoid the discomfort of judging yourself as second class. You don’t put yourself out there because you don’t want to be reminded that you don’t feel good about yourself. People and situations can’t knock you down a rung, only you can. You have control over how much love you give yourself. And it’s time to give yourself more.
This may sound silly, but it’s not – if you make a little time every day to wish yourself kindness, happiness and peace you will have more peace and happiness. You will attach less fear to situations judge yourself less and block yourself less.
Give it a try. You’re worth it.
The cards don’t matter. What matters is how you play them.
What you think of yourself colors everything you do. When someone challenges your ideas, your response makes it clear how you see yourself. Regardless of your response, you tip your hand. Regardless of your response, everyone can see your cards.
When you have a terrible poker hand like, say, a king high, you can respond three ways. You can fold and let the challenger go unchallenged. You can check and kick the can down the road. Or you can bluff and go toe-to-toe with the challenger. With the fold you see things as they are and behave accordingly. The fold is an admission you have a lesser hand. And sometimes that’s difficult to do. The check says you don’t want others to know you have a terrible hand but you thing things will turn around. With the bluff you pretend things are different than they are and you pretend accordingly. You may fool the unseasoned player on your right, but make no mistake, the card shark on your left knows you’re bluffing. And deep down, you know too.
With a middle-of-the-road hand like the full house you have the same options. The fold is less likely because your hand is stronger. You fold only when you sense a strong challenge and the pot is large. No sense going head-to-head with a player with swagger when the stakes are high. There’s no harm in folding. The check says you’re not sure of yourself, or, you are and your hand is neither special nor terrible. The bluff is still risky but less so. If you think you can survive getting caught and are okay with the follow-on judgement, there’s a larger probability you’ll try.
With four aces you call the shots. The fold is reserved for those special situations where you want to preserve the status of players you care about. Or, when you have enough chips and you want others to get the glory. Either way it’s too little used. Few have the self-worth, generosity and thoughtfulness to play things that way. The check is equally generous. The check says you’re comfortable with your cards and how the hand is going. No need to flex your muscles. When you have the winning cards the bluff is counterproductive. Playing bigger than your hand pushes everyone away and they fold. You may with the pot, but next hand they’ll go after you. Embarrassing the other players is no way to play.
Really, though, your cards don’t matter. Regardless of your cards, don’t take a challenge personally. Regardless of your cards, respond like you hold all of them – all the aces, face cards, and all the wild cards.
It relatively easy to behave this way when the professional challenges your ideas because they don’t challenge you, they challenge your ideas. And you are not your ideas. Look deeply and honestly at the ideas and leave your self out of it. But it’s more difficult with the hack. Under the banner of challenging your ideas, the hack will try to challenge you. Here’s where you’ve got to hold onto a fundamental truth – no one can challenge you without your consent. Here’s where you’ve got to remember this truth applies to everyone – those with a four-of-a-kind, those with a full house, and those with a pair of twos. Here’s where you’ve got to remember that your cards don’t matter. The best way I know how to do that is to visualize your self as a screen door and let their hot air pass through you.
The challenges don’t matter and neither does the hand you were dealt. All that matters is your response. Respond with your heart’s best intentions and everyone will split the pot and they’ll want you to deal every hand.
Image credit – lawrence