Uncertainty Isn’t All Bad
If you think you understand what your customers want, you don’t.
If you’re developing a new product for new customers, you know less.
If you’re developing a new technology for a new product for new customers, you know even less.
If you think you know how much growth a new product will deliver, you don’t.
If that new product will serve new customers, you know less.
If that new product will require a new technology, you know even less.
If you have to choose between project A and B, you’ll choose the one that’s most like what you did last time.
If project A will change the game and B will grow sales by 5%, you’ll play the game you played last time.
If project A and B will serve new customers, you’ll change one of them to serve existing customers and do that one.
If you think you know how the market will respond to a new product, it won’t make much of a difference.
If you don’t know how the market will respond, you may be onto something.
If you don’t know which market the product will serve, there’s a chance to create a whole new one.
If you know how the market will respond, do something else.
When we have a choice between certainty and upside, the choice is certain.
When we choose certainty over upside, we forget that the up-starts will choose differently.
When we have a lot to lose, we chose certainty.
And once it’s lost, we start over and choose uncertainty.
Image credit — Alexandra E Rust